Deciding with only a wristwach in thick fog
When uncertainty thickens and time gets short, decision-making becomes a struggle. Different schools of thought collide: rationalists, intuitionists, data believers, champions of tactical agility. Should we build models, trust our gut, delegate to machines, or simplify to the extreme? Here’s a cross-cutting overview to help you stay in control—even in the fog and under pressure.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan, 2010) ; Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, 2012) ;
Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011);
Malcolm Gladwell (Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, 2005);
Nate Silver (The Signal and the Noise, 2012) ;
Roy Baumeister & John Tierney (Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength, 2011) ;
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, (Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, 2015) ;
Barry Schwartz, (The Paradox of Choice, 2004).
1. Predict the unpredictable… without drowning in it
Uncertainty is often framed as a math problem to be solved. Since Blaise Pascal and his “expected value” theory, rational decision-makers have tried to tame unpredictability with probability. While it’s impossible to foresee everything—our brains simply can’t process all available information (as Herbert Simon’s theory of bounded rationality reminds us)—we can still estimate risks and decide accordingly. The smartest path? Choose the option with tolerable error costs, and favor two-way doors over one-way bets.
Blind spot: models help—until the day they fall apart. History is full of examples where top-tier probabilistic models collapsed under the weight of the unexpected. In 2008, financial models claimed the subprime crisis was “near impossible”… and yet it happened.
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