Book overview

Think like the best Forecasters

How can you better understand and respond to the confusing world around you? From 2011-2014, the American intelligence community sponsored a forecasting tournament that brought together over 20,000 participants from a wide variety of backgrounds and domains. A study of this tournament reveals the methods and traits that anyone can learn to navigate uncertainty more intelligently.

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Think like the best forecasters


Based on Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, “Ten Commandments for aspiring superforecasters,” appendix, p. 277-85 of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (Random House Books, October 2015) and an interview with Mark D., director, business development (February 2016).

Caroline Schuurman
Published by Caroline Schuurman