How to prepare for the next crisis
You’re all set for the next health crisis. You’re convinced that nothing will surprise you again. In fact, you may be victim of an availability bias.
This is the same bias that has forced countless travelers to go through airport security checks in socks because of a single attempted “shoe bomb” attack 19 years ago. You have learned the lessons of the health crisis and have adapted. However, it is highly unlikely that we will experience a similar crisis again. You run the risk of believing – wrongly – that you are immune to a new crisis. The two approaches below will help you prepare for a next crisis, no matter what it’s like:
- Switch from micro to macro. People may be tempted to stock up on what was lacking during the current health crisis, such as masks and hydroalcoholic gel. But it would be more productive to broaden your thinking to a more global level. For instance, what have you learned about the weaknesses of your supply chain? How can you make it more robust?
- Develop your resilience. You can be sure that other crises will happen. You can prepare for them with back-up plans and by drawing up different scenarios. Also work on your state of mind and your ability to accept that everything does not go according to plan – and be flexible. You will find it easier to mobilize all your resources.
Prepare to be surprised.
To go further: “Stop Preparing For The Last Disaster” by Shane Parrish, (Farnam Street, july 2020).
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