How AI helps you make decisions
Artificial intelligence tools limit uncertainties with their predictive abilities and can help you make good choices, provided you know what you want them to predict and are using a holistic decision-making process.
Based on Prediction Machines, The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb (Harvard Business Review Press, 2018)
1/ Define what you need to predict
“I want to know who are our best prospects” is not a directive. A good prediction requires careful consideration, of your needs. Learn to specify your objectives by asking yourself a simple question: “What do I need to know to make the best decision?”. This goes beyond merely making a statement of intent. If you want to identify the “best” potential developers for your R&D department, you must decide what you mean by “best”. Are they the candidates with the most impressive degrees or ones who have quickly moved up in the company? Within your existing team, who would your preferred candidates be most similar to, and in what ways?
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