Think like the best Forecasters

How can you better understand and respond to the confusing world around you? From 2011-2014, the American intelligence community sponsored a forecasting tournament that brought together over 20,000 participants from a wide variety of backgrounds and domains. A study of this tournament reveals the methods and traits that anyone can learn to navigate uncertainty more intelligently.

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Think like the best forecasters

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Based on Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, “Ten Commandments for aspiring superforecasters,” appendix, p. 277-85 of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (Random House Books, October 2015) and an interview with Mark D., director, business development (February 2016).