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Can you spot the traps that humanity has been laying for itself for millennia as a result of popular misconceptions and cognitive biases?
Fluke – Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters, by Brian Klaas, Scribner, January 2024
And why? In 1988, the bacteriologist Richard Lenski set in motion an experiment designed to observe 12 colonies of strictly identical E. Coli bacteria over time. The question he asked was: Will the colonies evolve throughout the generations and, if so, will they follow the same path? The bacteria corroborated the theory of evolutionary convergence for 25 years: they all became more efficient at eating the resources they were provided with, and at the same pace. But then, one day in 2003, a scientist on the team discovered that the population of one of the 12 flasks had suddenly exploded. What’s more, the liquid that the bacteria had been swimming in no longer contained citrate. Do you know why?
A – Because the flask was left out in the open.
B – It was down to several random mutations.
C – Because of global warming.
Right !
Answer B: After tracing the history of the freak sample back in time, the team realized it had undergone three random back-to-back micro-mutations without any apparent effect… until a fourth mutation made the bacteria capable of digesting citrate from its environment. Contrary to what many in the scientific community thought at the time, the evolution of living systems is bountiful with chance playing a huge role... And why not?
Wrong !
Answer B: After tracing the history of the freak sample back in time, the team realized it had undergone three random back-to-back micro-mutations without any apparent effect… until a fourth mutation made the bacteria capable of digesting citrate from its environment. Contrary to what many in the scientific community thought at the time, the evolution of living systems is bountiful with chance playing a huge role... And why not?
Are you familiar with the swarm paradox?
A – More order means more chaos.
B – More wasps means fewer stings.
C – More hornets means fewer hornets.
Right !
Answer A: Desert locusts are solitary and sedentary creatures for most of their lives, but can become gregarious when food is scarce as a result of a pheromone they secrete. They then form huge swarms that become increasingly ordered as their density grows, but which are also less and less predictable: switching direction at random, they drop from the sky without warning onto fields that they lay waste to down to the last stalk or stem. We can make a connection between this behavior and our own human behavior: the latter is more ordered than ever before at global level but also much more prone to disasters that are as unexpected as they are massive – what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “black swans”.
Wrong !
Answer A: Desert locusts are solitary and sedentary creatures for most of their lives, but can become gregarious when food is scarce as a result of a pheromone they secrete. They then form huge swarms that become increasingly ordered as their density grows, but which are also less and less predictable: switching direction at random, they drop from the sky without warning onto fields that they lay waste to down to the last stalk or stem. We can make a connection between this behavior and our own human behavior: the latter is more ordered than ever before at global level but also much more prone to disasters that are as unexpected as they are massive – what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “black swans”.
Unknown causes. When a country experiences an influx of immigrants, does it lead to antipathy among the local population towards social safety nets, based on the idea that they are unwarranted “gifts” for new arrivals?
A – Yes
B – No
C – We don’t have a clue.
Right !
Answer C: Seventy-six teams of researchers took part separately in a study on the impact of methodology on research outcomes. They attempted to provide a statistical answer, using the same terms and data that was identical in all respects. And the upshot of it all? A quarter answered “Yes", a quarter “No", and half “undefined”! What was the cause of these curious results? The answer isn’t straightforward. Methodological differences explain 5% of the variations, but the remaining 95% are still totally unexplained. So, even when we think we have everything under control, uncertainty always catches up with us!
Wrong !
Answer C: Seventy-six teams of researchers took part separately in a study on the impact of methodology on research outcomes. They attempted to provide a statistical answer, using the same terms and data that was identical in all respects. And the upshot of it all? A quarter answered “Yes", a quarter “No", and half “undefined”! What was the cause of these curious results? The answer isn’t straightforward. Methodological differences explain 5% of the variations, but the remaining 95% are still totally unexplained. So, even when we think we have everything under control, uncertainty always catches up with us!
What is teleological bias?
A – When you see “because” everywhere.
B – When you see the hand of God all around.
C – When you see caves everywhere.
Right !
Answer A: Teleological bias is derived from the belief that “everything has a meaning or prior reason.” This is the pattern of thinking at work when children say that the sun rises so that animals can see properly or that rain falls so that plants can grow. Teleological bias in adults is seen most clearly not just in the field of conspiracies but also whenever we think that everything happens for a reason.
Wrong !
Answer A: Teleological bias is derived from the belief that “everything has a meaning or prior reason.” This is the pattern of thinking at work when children say that the sun rises so that animals can see properly or that rain falls so that plants can grow. Teleological bias in adults is seen most clearly not just in the field of conspiracies but also whenever we think that everything happens for a reason.
The shortcut gone-wrong. Julodimorpha bakewelli is a pretty beetle from the family Buprestidae that lives in Australia. Over the millennia, it has evolved to recognize females of its species at first sight. But for some years now…
A – Females change color to avoid being assaulted.
B – Males are so efficient that julodimorpha colonies have overpopulated and attack other beetles.
C – Males copulate with discarded beer bottles and could be rushing towards their own destruction.
Right !
Answer C: Like humans, these beetles are shortcut creatures that have evolved to boost their chances of survival and reproduction. For julodimorpha, this evolution has given them the ability to recognize the patterns and colors specific to the females of the species in any situation… even when by chance they find the same distinct features mimicked on discarded beer bottles. The evolutionary advantage of the shortcut creature has ended up being such an evolutionary trap that the beetle population has gone downhill in some regions.
Wrong !
Answer C: Like humans, these beetles are shortcut creatures that have evolved to boost their chances of survival and reproduction. For julodimorpha, this evolution has given them the ability to recognize the patterns and colors specific to the females of the species in any situation… even when by chance they find the same distinct features mimicked on discarded beer bottles. The evolutionary advantage of the shortcut creature has ended up being such an evolutionary trap that the beetle population has gone downhill in some regions.
Biased memories. You flip a fair coin. The first 10 tosses end up tails. What do you deduce it will be next time: heads or tails?
A – Tails again – that’s what’s known as the good old law of series.
B – It will be 50/50.
C – Heads, because the statistical anomaly can’t last very long!
Right !
Answer B: Thinking it’s more likely to be heads or tails is an error of logic, known as the gambler's fallacy. This is based on the belief that in a random blind selection, the results of a series are statistically linked to each other, as though the coins remember whether they had been head or tails before.
Wrong !
Answer B: Thinking it’s more likely to be heads or tails is an error of logic, known as the gambler's fallacy. This is based on the belief that in a random blind selection, the results of a series are statistically linked to each other, as though the coins remember whether they had been head or tails before.
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